By Viv Forbes
Congratulations to Ted Dwyer in “Spectator Australia” (25/6/22) for asking why Australia has bet-the-house on the US/NATO adventurism in Ukraine.
There are few innocent parties in Ukraine today – an undeclared civil war has been simmering for this whole century.
Since the Mongol destruction of Kiev in 1240, almost everyone has invaded Ukraine – its flat fertile lands and mineral resources attract plunderers. Russia has a long memory of invaders from the west including Napoleon, the Austrians, the Poles, the Swedes and Hitler’s Nazis.
Russia’s Catherine the Great annexed the Crimea in 1783 and established the Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine was one of the founding Soviet Republics in 1922, and Russian is the mother tongue for several areas of Ukraine. Modern Ukraine was founded in 1992 when the Soviet Union collapsed but Russian areas like Luhansk and Donetsk refused to be a part of Ukraine. They said they “were and always would be Russian”.
Russia has seen NATO as a threat for decades – it has expanded from its 12 founders in 1949 to 30 members plus 40 “Security Partners” today – always creeping closer to Russia.
Australia has no vital interests in Ukraine and should not get embroiled in a messy foreign family quarrel. Sending Australian bushmasters into Ukraine against Russia will prove as futile as sending the British Light Brigade into Crimea against Russia in 1854.
What is happening in Ukraine today is absolutely awful, but it will not be helped by sending more weapons.
There are only two possible solutions – total defeat of one side, or separation of the warring parties. We need to remember the lessons of the two Koreas, the two Irelands, the two Chinas, and India and the two Pakistans – partition may be the only humane way of bringing peace to Ukraine.
Tit-for-tat harassment of “oligarchs” on both sides helps nothing – just sells newspapers.
Adding to the risk for Australia in taunting Russia was Ex-PM Morrison’s pointless baiting of the Chinese over the source of Covid. There are probably several guilty parties in that crime but the demand for answers should have gone to WHO, not China.
Australian politicians have made enemies of two very powerful nations, one of whom is our biggest customer. These two Eurasian giants, Russia and China, control all the vast resource-rich lands from the Black Sea to the Sea of Japan. They have entered a formal alliance and they have potent allies. And the unlike green-power warriors “defending” Australia, they have nuclear weapons and use powerful and reliable nuclear energy.
Both Russia and China are key members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and of the new G8 which comprises China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Iran and Turkey.
Australia, USA and UK have always been friends and allies, and this will continue. But sometimes friends do foolish things and they should be warned. Getting involved in a complex and largely domestic dispute in Ukraine is one of those times.
As Ted Dwyer says “Australia now has a target on its back”.
While Aukus is distracted by Ukraine, China is making no secret of its aggressive intentions to invade peaceful, democratic and united Taiwan. Their treatment of dissidents in Hong Kong shows what they plan for Taiwan.
Taiwan deserves Australia’s support.
We cannot help the military mess in Ukraine, and have destroyed our possible value there as an impartial mediator.
And unless we dump Net Zero Nonsense, we will soon be defenceless in a hostile world.
The 100 million selfie in Ukraine:
Russia and the new G8:
How we bet the House on Ukraine:
How Ukraine Became Part of the USSR – The Soviet–Ukrainian War: