Cold Kills, and Green Energy Does More Harm than Good

The Australian Journal of General Practice (AJGP) promotes climate alarm

By Dr D Weston Allen (MBBS, FRACGP, Grad Dip Phys Med)

The August edition of the AJGP published a dreadful article authored by members of the Doctors for the Environment Australia (DEA), linking climate change to increased mortality from extreme weather events, bushfires, infectious diseases, water insecurity and reduced crop yields.1 The AJGP editor found the following letter “informative and interesting” but rejected it for publication.

The health impacts of climate change are mixed. Cold weather has more prolonged effects than heat2 and a much greater global mortality.3 Anthropogenic warming may be saving over a million lives annually.4 Cold-related deaths are projected to exceed heat-related deaths for some decades across most of the globe,5 even without adaptation and based on very improbable future emissions6 and climate models that run too hot.7

The latest scientific Assessment Report of the IPCC admits uncertainty regarding the climate sensitivity to CO2 and its impact on extreme weather events,8 whose global mortality has dramatically declined9 and normalised cost not increased.10

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) impacts health, increasing cardiac mortality by up to 3%,11 respiratory infections by 1-2%,12 childhood asthma by 6%13 and gastroenteritis by 3%14 per 1⁰C increase in DTR. By slowing the radiative cooling of Earth’s surface, greenhouse gases increase minimum temperatures more than maximums15 and thus reduce DTR and its adverse health impacts.16

Global crop yields keep reaching record levels,17 partly due to CO2 promoting growth18 and mitigating both heat-stress19 and drought.20 Protein content can be maintained by genotype selection21 and nitrogen fertilization.22 Global irrigation demand is expected to decline by about 17% by the 2080s due to the beneficial effects of CO2, shorter growing periods and regional precipitation increases,23 thus reducing the net global population at high risk of water stress.24

Energy policies impact human and planetary health.25 Promoting diesel to reduce CO2 emissions actually increased air pollution.26 Burning wood can be worse than burning coal.27 Intermittent renewables and the infrastructure required for baseload power are very resource intensive 28 and thus threaten biodiversity.29 Mining neodymium for wind turbine magnets produces radioactive waste.30 Nuclear power uses the least land/resources,31 has the lowest life-cycle emissions32 and fewest human deaths per unit of energy produced.33

Objectively evaluating all the evidence is essential. Whereas carbon dioxide is greening the planet and benefitting human health, climate action driven by ideology and vested interests may do far more harm than good.

1 Pendry CGA, Beaton L, Kneebone JA. General practice in the era of planetary health. AJGP 2020; 49 (8): 520-523

2 Braga ALF, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J. The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 U.S. cities. Environmental Health Perspectives 2002; 110: 859-863.

3 Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, et al. Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study. The Lancet. 2015: 386 (9991): 369-375. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0.

4 Bosello F, Roson R, Tol RSJ. Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health. Ecological Economics 2006; 58(3): 579-91.

5 Gasparrini A, Guo Y, Sera F, et al. Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios. The Lancet Planetary Health. 2017: 1 (9): 360-367. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30156-0

6 Hausfather Z, Peters GP. Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading. Nature 2020; 577: 618-620 doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3

7 McKitrick R, Christie J. A test of the tropical 200- to 300-hPa warming rate in climate models. Earth and Space Science 2018; 5: 529-536 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EA000401

8 Bindoff NL, Stott PA, et al. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker TF, Qin D et al. (eds.)] 2013: 871-924. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

9 Goklany IM. Deaths and death rates due to extreme weather events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 2009; 14 (4): 102-109.

10 Pielke R. Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998-202: a literature review and assessment. Environmental Hazards 2020; DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2020.1800440

11 Cao J, Cheng Y, Zhao N, Song W, Jiang C, Chen R, Kan H. Diurnal temperature range is a risk factor for coronary heart disease death. Journal of Epidemiology 2009;19: 328-332.

12 Ge WZ, Xu F, Zhao ZH, Zhao JZ, Kan HD. Association between diurnal temperature range and respiratory tract infections. Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2013; 26: 222-225.

13 Xu Z, Huang C, Su H, Turner LR, Qiao Z, Tong S. Diurnal temperature range and childhood asthma: a time-series study. Environmental Health 2013; 12: https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-12-12

14 Xu Z, Huang C, Turner LR, Su H, Qiao Z, Tong S. Is diurnal temperature range a risk factor for childhood diarrhea? PLoS One 2013; 8(5):e64713. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0064713.

15 Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2006; 111 (D5): 109-141  https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290

16 Braganza K, Karoly DJ, Arblaster JM Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 2004: 31 (13): 217-221 doi.org/10.1029/2004GL019998

17 Abbott C. Record-high world grain production for second year in a row. Successful Farming 6/8/2020. https://www.agriculture.com/news/business/record-high-world-grain-production-for-second-year-in-a-row [accessed 24/9/20]

18 Ainsworth EA, Long SP What have we learned from fifteen years of free-air CO2 enrichment FACE? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytologist 2005; 165:351-372.

19 Gutiérrez del Pozo D, Gutierrez E, Pérez P, et al. Acclimation to future atmospheric CO2 levels increases photochemical efficiency and mitigates photochemistry inhibition by warm temperatures in wheat under field conditions. Physiologia Plantarum 2009; 137 (1):86-100. DOI: 10.1111/j.1399-3054.2009.01256.x

20 Fleisher DH, Timlin DJ, Reddy VR. Elevated carbon dioxide and water stress effects on potato canopy gas exchange, water use and productivity. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2008; 148:1109-1122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.02.007

21 De Costa J, Weerakoon WMW, Chinthaka KGR. et al. Genotypic variation in the response of rice (Oryza sativa) to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and its physiological basis. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science 2007; 193:117-130. DOI: 10.1111/j.1439-037X.2007.00255.x

22 Sultana H, Armstrong R, Suter H, et al. A short-term study of wheat grain protein response to post-anthesis foliar nitrogen application under elevated CO2 and supplementary irrigation. Journal of Cereal Science 2017; 75:135-137.

23 Konzmann M, Gerten D, Heinke J. Climate impacts on global irrigation requirements under 19 GCMs, simulated with a vegetation and hydrology model. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2013; 58 (1): 88-105.

24 Wiltshire A, et al. The importance of population, climate change and carbon dioxide plant physiological forcing in determining future global water stress. Global Environmental Change. 2013; 23 (5): 1083-1097.

25 ÓhAiseadha C, Quinn G, Connolly R, Connolly M, Soon W. Energy and Climate Policy-An Evaluation of Global Climate Change Expenditure 2011-2018. Energies 2020; (13) 4839.  https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184839

26 Jenkins HW. Dieselgate is a political disaster. WSJ 2017; Feb. 14 https://www.wsj.com/articles/dieselgate-is-a-political-disaster-1487116586

27 Sterman JD, Siegel L, Rooney-Varga JN. Does replacing coal with wood lower CO2 emissions? Dynamic life cycle analysis of wood bioenergy. Environmental Research Letters 2018; 13 (1): 1-10

28 Dominish E, Florin N, Teske S. Responsible Minerals Sourcing for Renewable Energy. Report prepared for Earthworks by the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney. 2019 https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/2019-04/ISFEarthworks_Responsible%20minerals%20sourcing%20for%20renewable%20energy_Report.pdf

29 Sonter L, Dade MC, Watson EM and Valenta RK. Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity. Nature Communications 2020; 11:4174-80 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17928-5

30 Parry S. In China, the true cost of Britain’s clean, green wind power experiment: pollution on a disastrous scale. Mail Online 2011. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1350811/In-China-true-cost-Britains-clean-green-wind-power-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html

31 Cheng VKM and Hammond GP. Life-cycle energy densities and land-take requirements of various power generators: a UK perspective. Journal of the Energy Institute 2017; 90 (2): 201-213 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joei.2016.02.003

32 Pehl M, Arvesen A, Humpenöder F. et al. Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling. Nat Energy 2017; 2: 939-945 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0032-9

33 Conca J. How deadly is your kilowatt? We rank the killer energy sources. Forbes 2012 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2012/06/10/energys-deathprint-a-price-always-paid/#17d1380d709b

Not So Green

By Viv Forbes

Solar energy is very dilute, so solar collectors usually cover huge areas of flat arable land, stealing farmland, starving wild herbs and grasses of sunlight and creating “Solar Deserts”.

A Solar Desert expanding at Gannawarra in Victoria, Australia. Picture Credit ARENA

Wind turbines steal energy from winds which often bring moisture from the ocean. These walls of turbines then create rain shadows, producing more rain near the turbines and more droughts down-wind. Turbines work best along ridge lines where eagles also seek thermals, so birds and bats get chopped up by these whirling scythes. They also annoy neighbours with noise and increase bushfire risk. Continue reading “Not So Green”

The Green Road to Blackouts

by Viv Forbes

California leads the way to electricity blackouts, closely followed by South Australia.

They both created this problem by taxing, banning, delaying or demolishing reliable coal, nuclear, gas or hydro generators while subsidising and promoting unreliable electricity from the sickly green twins – solar and wind. All supposed to solve a global warming crisis that exists only in academic computer models.

Energy policy should be driven by proven reliability, efficiency and cost, not by green politics.

Wind and solar will always be prone to blackouts for three reasons. Continue reading “The Green Road to Blackouts”

The Rising Costs of the Climate War

By Alan Moran

Rio Tinto’s [Paywall] announced closure of its aluminium smelter in New Zealand due to uncompetitive power prices is a reminder of the vulnerability of Australia’s four remaining smelters, all of which face sharply higher prices courtesy of government energy policies. With energy costs comprising about a third of their total costs, smelters are industry’s bellwethers of future energy competitiveness and all four of Australia’s are on national suicide watch.

As a result of subsidies to wind and solar, these expensive and unreliable energy sources have caused high customer costs, both directly and indirectly, while also diverting the nation’s investment resources into avenues that actually damage the economy. Continue reading “The Rising Costs of the Climate War”

Greens Deliver US Security to China

By Paul Driessen and Dr. Ned Mamula

Excerpt from https://townhall.com/columnists/pauldriessen/2020/07/18/hold-china-accountable–or-give-it-even-more-control-n2572706

The United States is also beholden to China for metals and minerals in energy, aerospace, defense, telecom and other industries. Joe Biden, AOC, Democrats and environmentalist groups would not just shut down fossil fuel production, pipelines and fuels for power generation and manufacturing. They would effectively turn our energy systems, manufacturing, defense, livelihoods and living standards over to China.

Continue reading “Greens Deliver US Security to China”

Renewables Hit a Record High of Global Energy Production – 3.6%. The World Still Runs on Coal, Oil and Gas

After 20 years of subsidies, intermittent renewables account for just 3.6% of total energy generation. That’s the tiny purple sliver in the graph. Global power means not just electricity, but also fuel used in transport. And this is where wind and solar power are respectively old and slow, or modern but useless.

Read More: http://joannenova.com.au/2018/09/renewables-hit-record-high-of-3-6-of-total-global-energy-production/

The Choke Point in the Wind Supply in South Australia

The SA story in pictures.  http://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/05/05/the-choke-point-in-the-wind-supply-in-south-australia/

Given the “choke” problem no amount of good days save the grid from dying on a bad day. No feasible storage is in sight to get over the troughs between the peaks of wind and sun.

Much talk of our great resources of wind and sun. Great land resources as well, but how much is arable? The BOM records probably indicate limits to farming, were they consulted to check the continuity of wind and solar supply?

Australia on the cliff approaching the shuttering of Liddell power station.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/30/australian-energy-security-on-the-brink/

AEMO data demonstrate that wind and solar cannot work without storage and should never have been subsidised to increase the cost of power and destabilize the grid.

Providing 100 Percent Energy from Renewable Sources Is Impossible

By David Wojick. First published by https://www.heartland.org/.

Lately, many politicians at the federal, state, and local levels have unthinkingly bought into the talking points of radical environmentalists, pushing policies to require 100 percent of the electricity used in the United States to come from politically favored renewable energy sources, primarily wind and solar power.

Generating all of America’s electric power through wind and solar industrial facilities is an expensive pipedream. Continue reading “Providing 100 Percent Energy from Renewable Sources Is Impossible”

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

This was originally published by “The Manhattan Institute:
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/green-energy-revolution-near-impossible

A movement has been growing for decades to replace hydrocarbons, which collectively supply 84% of the world’s energy. It began with the fear that we were running out of oil. That fear has since migrated to the belief that, because of climate change and other environmental concerns, society can no longer tolerate burning oil, natural gas, and coal—all of which have turned out to be abundant. Continue reading “The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking”

Wasting Australia’s Resources

By Viv Forbes

Foolish politicians driven by extreme green ideology are wasting Australia’s resources.

Australia’s nuclear resources are largely wasted. We have abundant geological potential for uranium and other nuclear fuels, we know how to explore and extract them, but with bans and restrictions that change every election, and approval processes that take either some years or forever, only three mines are operating. And Australia is the only G20 country to ban clean silent low-emission nuclear power.

Australia’s waste and sterilisation of coal and oil shale resources is also an international disgrace. Solid hydro-carbon resources are very concentrated stores of value, but cannot be used without temporarily disturbing other resources such as soils, vegetation and stored water. Continue reading “Wasting Australia’s Resources”