Wildfires – Climate or Criminal?

By Dr Graham Pinn

The year 2024 produced much anguish over fires, with attempts made to blame the regular events on “unprecedented” climate change. The season is just kicking off here but elsewhere, in the Northern winter, things are hotting up early!

Just a few days into January 2025, the season has already started, with a major fire in Los Angeles; typically, the usual “catastrophic” fire season begins around May. Seven fires, including on the iconic Sunset Boulevard, have created significant damage, with tens of thousands evacuated, and only two under control (am 9/01). The city, with a population of 4 million has a massive urban sprawl, resulting in an area 50% bigger than New York.

The cause is yet to be evaluated, with temperatures as low as 3 degrees it is difficult to relate it to excess heat, no doubt some will try; strong winds are exacerbating the damage, with already (Day 2) a thousand homes lost. The timing of onset of fires, and their multiple inner-city sites, are all strongly suggestive of arson.

The Northern Hemisphere summer bushfire outbreak in 2024, had begun in Portugal, the Government declaring a state of emergency, and the massive scale needing help from outside countries. The Government believed many fires were started by accident or intent, Reuters reported 14 arrested, with 125,000 hectares, burned.

Major bushfires in Greece threatened Athens in August 2024, and again, led to requests for help from other countries; the inevitable cry of “global warming” ensued. The previous year’s summer fire-storm in Greece, in 2023, had led to 140 arrests, officials had blamed negligence or arson for the majority of the blazes. Estimates are that 60% of fires in the Italian summer of 2023 were also intentionally lit, with 22 arrests. Spain’s Asturias region was hit by 90 fires that year, most believed to be lit by arsonists, labelled “fire terrorists”.

Of over 6000 fires in 2023 in Canada, were blamed on climate change, half were believed to result from human accidents, some shown to have been caused by arson. Interestingly, a Canadian man, who claimed fires were deliberately started by government agencies, was, in January 2024, himself convicted of starting 14 fires the previous year. The all-time record holder, inevitably from the US, is John Orr, believed to have lit over 2000 fires between 1984 and 1991.

There were no lightning strikes in September 2023, when a series of small fires in the East of Australia joined up into a mega event, most were man-made. In the New Year, before the rains came, an outbreak in North Adelaide was a suspicious event, and an arrest made, several fires near Geelong in January 2024, were again being treated as suspicious. Fires, in March on the outskirts of Perth in WA, resulted in arrests made. There were also suspicious fires on the Sunshine Coast and the Whitsundays. In the Northern Territory one man was charged over 18 fires, with dozens more suspected, arson was reported in central NSW, with 24 charged. Fortunately, and unanticipated by BoM, rain stopped play!

The role of arson in fires, has been labelled disinformation by activists; the reporting, which the Government’s failed free speech bill could have blocked, has revealed the reality that many fires have human, rather than natural origins. A review by the Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) in 2002 found that, over the 30 years that the population had doubled, the incidence of arson increased 2000%; their estimate was that cases were doubling every 10 years.

Examination of the last major fire season in 2019-20 in Victoria, by researcher, Colleen Bryant, revealed as many as 50%, of fires were deemed suspicious; this is nothing new. A 2016 Vic Police report, had previously found 4,500 cases of arson that year, with the incidence increased by over 30% over 5 years; 60% were unsolved. In WA over 40% of metropolitan fires are believed by police to be deliberately lit. In NSW, Bureau of Crime statistics reported 7,500 fires, in the years 2021-23, were attributed to arson, an increase of over 30%, in some areas an 80% increase.

The claim that Australia has “more intense fire seasons, brought about by climate change”, is not itself subjected to analysis for disinformation. Statistics from CSIRO suggest a longer fire season, increased by 14 days over 40 years, but do not support that claim of worsening intensity or extent. The World Weather Attribution Service has found no statistically significant association of bushfires with climate change, this finding makes no difference to media reporting. Upgrading of fire risk classification, originally ranging from low to high, now from moderate to “catastrophic” levels, has resulted in an impression of a worsening situation.

Fires can start through natural events such as lightning-strikes, also arcing power lines, human accidents or carelessness, and human intent. The AIC report in 2008, looked at bushfire seasons over 5 years, it estimated that up to 85% of fires were human caused; 35% accidental, 13% deliberate, 37% suspicious, with 6% natural, others 9%. Larger, remote fires are less likely to be deliberate, with smaller, habitation-related fires, more likely arson-induced.

The variation in fire incidence, in different areas and at different times, can increase suspicion. In Australia, a higher incidence of fires occurs in outer suburbs, compared with the inner suburbs having a lower incidence. Although accidental fires are also more likely at the weekend, so is the incidence of deliberate fire-setting; overall, they are 20-30% more likely to start at that time. Deliberately-lit fires are also more likely to start later in the day, peaking in the evening, some after sundown with an additional spike around midnight.

Special investigation into fires is more likely when the location, time of onset, or finding of accelerants, raise suspicions. The majority of bushfire arson is small in area, but as often close to habitation, has the potential to cause significant damage and waste resources. It can still lead to loss of home, occupation, livestock, and lives of those trapped or involved in fire-fighting; smoke pollution can also precipitate physical and psychological problems.

The woke state of California had already run into self-made problems with its laws resulting in widespread drug abuse, homelessness, massive debt, failing power supplies and businesses leaving; it also sits on a massive fault line with major earthquakes imminent. If that wasn’t bad enough, the fire in Los Angeles, most likely intentional will, without doubt, result in more departures. A series of fires there in September 2024, were attributed to a local firefighter; annually 10-15% of fires in California are believed intentional, and police were already investigating 8 LA, suspicious fires, over the previous month.

Maybe its time to put climate change in its place?

Additional Information:

Why California Wildfires are NOT Climate Driven: A Historical and Meteorological Perspective

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/01/08/why-california-wildfires-are-not-climate-driven-a-historical-and-meteorological-perspective/

Mismanagement and Misplaced Priorities Have Fueled the LA Fire

https://caldronpool.com/mismanagement-and-misplaced-priorities-fueled-the-la-fire-disaster/

Los Angeles burns in winter

https://joannenova.com.au/2025/01/los-angeles-burns-in-winter/

Joe Rogan (July 2024) recounts warnings about LA Wildfires

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONwjYOrCBV0


Dr Graham Pinn is a retired Consultant Physician.

One thought on “Wildfires – Climate or Criminal?”

  1. Thanks Dr Graham Pinn. At the Saltbush Club we are fortunate in that we know the CO2 climate warming/change narrative is fraudulent, and we can focus on actual forensic evidence. It would be interesting to know whether arsonists had links with political organisations or the main fake-stream media. Regarding the USA, I doubt whether any of the traditional media reported that Antifa agent-provocateurs were videoed changing into MAGA hats before they entered the Capitol, smashed glass then walked past guards and then departed. Neither do I believed Australia’s media has reported this. We can infer that they are also corrupted and ought not be trusted or given any authority regarding climate issues. The media is a the forefront, panicking us about the Earth attaining normal temperatures following the 1850s little ice age. We’re heating 1/10 of a degree every ten years, panic! PANIC! SEND US MONEY!!!! Fortunately, the truths have arrived.

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