Comparison of the First Fleet Sydney Temperature Records with Modern Data, 1788 to 2018

By Dr G M Derrick

Executive Summary

1. Notwithstanding a data gap from 1791 to 1859, there appears to have been little or no change in the trends of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures for a period of 230 years, from 1788 to 2018, based on comparisons of two data sets—one recorded by First Fleet officer William Dawes, and one from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

2. Gergis et al 2009, authors of a major study and compilation of the data, conclude that “Remarkably, the records appear comparable with modern day measurements taken from Sydney Observatory Hill, displaying similar daily variability, a distinct seasonal cycle and considerable inter-annual variability.”

This runs counter to the climate alarmism normally published by these authors.

Full article: [PDF: 2.6 MB]

4 thoughts on “Comparison of the First Fleet Sydney Temperature Records with Modern Data, 1788 to 2018”

  1. The interesting point about this report is that you would expect that the urban heat island effect for the recent history would result in the recent temperature means, both maximums and minimums being higher. Obviously the earlier records need to homogenised, adjusted and corrected to confirm rampant climate change (sarc). It might be fortuitous that the original records are hand written originals and difficult for a computer to adjust.

  2. What a wonderful report – it leaves little room for counter argument – lovely.
    Have there been any objections or protests and if so on what grounds ?
    Maybe the green lobby is just going to say nothing and hope it goes away.

  3. Well done Geoff. I couldn’t help but notice the names of two authors cited in the references viz Karoly and McAfee. As I recall Karoly is an alarmist and certainly the BOM who employ McAfee, are a bunch of alarmists. So if these two guys were familiar with these data in 2009 (Karoly) and 1981 (McAfee), how can they possibly justify their alarmist stance? What is going on here?

  4. Sent these two links to Nate the weatherman @abc breakfast on twitter with a comment – “no change in 230 years”:

    First Fleet: ”New Year’s Day 1788 was greeted by another storm and very cold weather around Tasmania, with reports of snow.”

    31.01.2018: Summer in Australia… snow in Tasmania

    “The last time we had a significant snowfall that was out the season it was the 3 December and we probably had eight inches.

    “It’s still only January!”
    A couple of weeks later, this segment appeared on abc breakfast:

    ABC News Breakfast with Dr Joëlle Gergis

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